Crude Oil Near Six-Month High on US-Iran Tensions: Brent at $71.99, WTI Eyes Breakout Above $66
Crude oil prices are hovering near a six-month high as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran inject fresh volatility into global energy markets. Rising geopolitical risks, shrinking crude inventories, and tightening supply dynamics have strengthened the bullish outlook for oil, with analysts expecting further upside if key resistance levels are breached.
Oil Prices Today: Brent and WTI Surge
As of February 20, 2026:
- Brent crude futures climbed 33 cents (0.5%) to $71.99 per barrel
- US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 62 cents (0.9%) to $67.05 per barrel
- MCX Crude Oil (March 2026 expiry) traded flat at ₹6,050 per barrel after early gains
According to Reuters, WTI futures have gained more than 5% this week, supported by mounting geopolitical risks and improving technical momentum.
What’s Driving the Oil Rally?
1️⃣ US-Iran Tensions Escalate
Oil markets reacted sharply after US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum urging Iran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement within 10 to 15 days.
The United States has also reportedly increased its military presence in the Middle East to levels not seen since the 2003 Iraq invasion. This has raised concerns of prolonged conflict, boosting the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
Meanwhile, joint naval drills between Iran and Russia in the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint responsible for nearly 20% of global oil transportation — have further heightened supply disruption fears.
2️⃣ Russia-Ukraine Uncertainty
The breakdown of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva has sparked concerns of extended sanctions and potential supply disruptions, adding further support to crude prices.
3️⃣ Shrinking Global Inventories
Declining crude inventories in the US and China signal a tightening global market despite planned output increases by OPEC+. Lower stockpiles often act as a bullish indicator for oil prices.
Technical Outlook: Is a Breakout Coming?
Expert View: Apurva Sheth, SAMCO Securities
According to Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, WTI has staged a strong recovery from the $55 level and is forming a bullish “higher high, higher low” structure.
Key technical levels:
Immediate resistance: $66
Upside target on breakout: $72–73
Strong support zone: $62–63
Deeper base support: $59
Sheth noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating sustained positive momentum.
From a broader perspective, he believes crude oil could be entering the energy phase of a potential commodity supercycle. Historically, commodities tend to rally in sequence — gold first, followed by base metals, and then energy.
Structural Tailwinds Supporting Oil
Beyond geopolitical tensions, analysts highlight additional long-term drivers:
- Possible slowdown in US shale production growth
- Years of underinvestment in oil capacity
- Strategic reserve accumulation by China
- Rising global demand amid industrial expansion
A decisive breakout above $66 in WTI could confirm the next bullish leg higher.
MCX Crude Oil Outlook for Indian Traders
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, stated that MCX crude oil (March contract) has gained over 5% this week and may remain bullish in the near term.
- Next resistance: ₹6,300 per barrel
- Immediate support: ₹6,000 per barrel
Escalating geopolitical risks could keep domestic crude prices firm in the coming weeks.
Should Investors Consider Oil Now?
With Brent trading near $72 and WTI testing key resistance, the market appears to be at a technical inflection point. While short-term volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical developments, strong technical patterns and tightening supply conditions suggest further upside potential if resistance levels are cleared.
- However, investors should closely monitor:
- Developments in US-Iran negotiations
- Inventory data from the US and China
- OPEC+ production decisions
- Global economic growth indicators
📌 Conclusion
Crude oil prices are trading near six-month highs as US-Iran tensions, shrinking inventories, and global supply risks lift market sentiment. A breakout above $66 for WTI could trigger a move toward $72–73, while MCX crude eyes ₹6,300 in the near term.
As geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, oil markets may continue to experience sharp price swings — creating both risks and opportunities for investors.
Disclaimer
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