Due to a weak US dollar and falling Treasury yields, silver prices increased 1.36% on Monday, approaching all-time highs. Due to high demand and limited supply, spot silver saw a 126% increase this year. Analysts anticipate more increases, with short-term goals ranging from $65 to $80.
Outlook for silver prices: Due to the US dollar's decline and falling Treasury yields, silver prices continued to rise on Monday, bringing the metal closer to its all-time highs. Around 9:15 am, March silver futures on MCX were up 1.36% at ₹1,95,466 per kg, continuing their impressive gains from the previous session, when they shot up ₹2,700 or 1.3% to reach an all-time high of ₹2,01,615 per kg.
Strong industrial demand, tighter supplies, and the metal's inclusion on the US essential minerals list have all contributed to silver's rise to the ₹2 lakh level. The solar, electric vehicle, and data center industries have seen particularly strong demand. Forecasts of a market deficit for the upcoming year were strengthened by robust ETF inflows and retail purchases. According to Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, "increasing leasing rates and higher borrowing prices for physical silver in London hinted at ongoing delivery issues."
The Federal Reserve stated that another rate cut is anticipated in 2026 following three consecutive rate reductions. On the other hand, the market believes that the risks are stacked in favor of the Fed doing more, with many analysts—including us—predicting more 25 basis point cuts in March and June. As markets await further clues about the Federal Reserve's future actions, the Fed's monetary policy position will continue to be a hot topic.
This year, spot silver has already experienced a remarkable 126% increase, climbing to about ₹1,08,000 per kilogram due to tightened global supplies and robust physical demand. With MCX February futures trading 0.72% higher at ₹1,34,580 per 10 grams after setting a new record of ₹1,35,263 on Friday, gold also took part in the wider commodities rally.
China's announcement of new restrictions on silver exports beginning in January 2026, which will last until 2027 and require exporters to get government licenses, added to the positive mood. This could severely restrict global supply, according to analysts. In the meantime, India's demand for physical silver is growing rapidly; imports exceeded 2,600 tonnes between September and October, including 1,715 tonnes in October alone, indicating strong demand from both investors and industry.
Silver will be worth ₹2.4 lakh in 2026, according to Axis Direct.
Axis Direct reports that silver's exceptional 2025 performance comes after an already impressive 2024, when the metal produced its largest annual gain—more than 100%—since 1979. Silver has emerged from a multi-year consolidation and is now in the early stages of a strong structural rally, according to the firm.
With a 2026 target of ₹2,40,000, Axis Direct advises leveraging any decrease toward ₹1,70,000–₹1,78,000 as a chance for staggered accumulation.
"Silver has broken out of a massive rounding-bottom formation stretching from 2011 to 2025, clearing the crucial neckline at $50 and surging to a new all-time high of $64," according to Axis Direct. This indicates that a long-term bullish cycle backed by growing macro momentum has begun.
The 20-month and 60-month EMAs have shifted upward, indicating traditional early-cycle confirmation, according to the business. In line with silver's historical propensity to rise even in high-RSI zones, the monthly RSI is still high but robust. In the near future, Axis Direct anticipates that the metal will test between $65 and $67, with a persistent close above $67 opening the way to $76 to $80.
The fundamentals of the silver market have changed significantly, according to Axis Direct. "The silver market is undergoing a historic repricing event driven by chronic supply deficits, industrial scarcity, and weakened correlation with gold," the brokerage stated. The market is expected to be short by more than 100 Moz in 2026, having been short by around 700 Moz between 2021 and 2025.
However, there are still risks: a downturn in the high-tech electronics industry might temporarily restrict prices, and silver above $60/oz could cause demand destruction or replacement in industrial industries.
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