USD vs. INR: Analysts advise investing in export-oriented industries like IT and pharmaceuticals as the Indian Rupee approaches 90 per USD.
USD vs. INR: The Indian National Rupee (INR) has been steadily declining and has reached levels of about 90 per US dollar (USD) due to the apparent lack of progress on the India-US trade agreement. Export-oriented businesses and segments are anticipated to profit as analysts forecast additional declines in the Indian Rupee. Purchasing stocks of IT, metal, and pharmaceutical companies with exposure to international markets may therefore be a wise choice. Selecting value options from these areas would be quite difficult, though, given that both the US and India are very eager about signing the India-US trade pact and the growing likelihood of a US Fed rate decrease at the FOMC meeting next month.
Which stock should be purchased prior to the India-US trade agreement?
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, discussed the segments that should be favored in the current currency market situation, saying, "We see a tactical buying opportunity in export-oriented themes like IT, Pharma, and Metals amid the Indian Rupee hitting fresh lows against the USD. The global macro pivot drives the main investment thesis, even though the currency depreciation provides an instant margin cushion.
Buzz about a US Fed rate decrease
Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart pointed to the growing bets on the US Fed rate cut, saying, "With a high probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting rates in December 2025, we anticipate a revival in discretionary tech spending (aiding IT) and a softening of the US Dollar Index (aiding global metal prices)." In addition, these pockets' prices are still appealing when compared to the index as a whole. By closely monitoring the US Fed's speech, investors can use this consolidation phase to build up high-quality stocks in these industries.
"INR has slid to around 89–90 per USD in late 2025, making exports more competitive and lifting rupee earnings when translated from dollars," stated Sachin Jasuja, Head of Equities and Founding Partner at Centricity WealthTech, in response to a suggestion for wealth creation rather than just recording profits in the declining Indian rupee against the US dollar. The largest beneficiaries are export-oriented, dollar-billing companies with high rupee costs; industries with considerable import inputs or pricing pressure only partially or not at all gain. When the rupee is weak, it may make sense to purchase IT and some pharmaceutical exporters, but it is dangerous to buy IT, metal, and pharmaceuticals all at once merely because the INR is declining.
Do you need to purchase pharmaceutical stocks?
Sachin Jasuja spoke in favor of pharmaceutical stocks, saying, "Pharma exports do benefit from a weaker rupee, but many companies import APIs and other inputs in dollars, so a part of the benefit gets offset by higher raw-material costs." Additionally, experts point out that as the supplier's currency depreciates, buyers frequently demand price reductions, so limiting the benefit. He claimed that it is not a blanket "buy pharma because INR fell" trade, but rather selectively favorable for export-heavy firms with less reliance on imports.
Do you want to purchase metal stocks?
Rupee devaluation may boost export realisations, but rising dollar-linked energy and raw material prices may counteract this. Many Indian metal players are connected to global commodities cycles. Rupee stability by itself won't be enough to save profits if the global metal cycle is weak or prices are declining. Sachin Jasuja stated, "Metal stocks are more of a global-cycle and China/US demand play than a pure rupee trade; INR weakness is, at best, a secondary factor." He added, "Domestic, rupee-revenue metal names gain little from FX anyway."
Tips for creating wealth
Sachin Jasuja revealed the investment strategy in the midst of the US Fed rate cut rumors and the declining Indian Rupee, saying, "Use rupee weakness as a tilt, not the core thesis: overweight higher-quality IT and select export-oriented pharma where valuations and demand already look reasonable; be more cautious on metals unless the global cycle turns up." Since the core business is not solely focused on the currency, the growth in sales, PAT, and management guidance are still the most important verticals to look for before taking the currency's depreciation or appreciation into account. Prior to increasing in size, the emphasis should continue to be on the percentage of USD revenues, import content, pricing power, hedge policies, and current valuation compared to historical ranges.
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