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USD vs. INR: The rupee bounces back 88 paise from its all-time low versus the US dollar. What caused the recovery?

USD vs. INR: The rupee bounces back 88 paise from its all-time low versus the US dollar.  What caused the recovery?

USD vs. INR: Opening at 88.74 versus the US dollar, the rupee gained 88 paise from its previous close to reach 87.93 for the first time since mid-September. It was up 0.5% against the US dollar at its most recent price of 88.3250.

The weakening dollar index on increased forecasts of US Federal Reserve rate reduction caused the Indian rupee to surge significantly against the US dollar on Wednesday, recovering from its all-time closing low. The local currency reached a nearly one-month high due to reports of RBI intervention and a drop in crude oil prices.

The rupee began trading at 88.74 versus the US dollar on the interbank foreign currency market, but it quickly gained strength and reached 87.93 for the first time since mid-September, marking an increase of 88 paise from its previous close. It was up 0.5% against the US dollar at its most recent price of 88.3250.

The rupee fell 13 paise against the US dollar on Tuesday, closing at its lowest point ever, 88.81.

At 98.85, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar relative to a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.20%.

After US Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised concerns about persistent inflation and suggested more rate reduction this year as the jobless rate increased, the US currency declined. As the Fed chief's dovish stance overcame some of the remaining concerns over US-China trade hostilities, Asian currencies and stocks rose.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also stepped in strongly to contain pressure on the rupee, kicking up dollar sales through state-run banks before the regular 9:00 a.m. market open, numerous dealers told Reuters.

The local currency was also boosted by declining crude oil prices. While US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 0.29% to $58.54, Brent crude oil prices fell 0.37% to $62.16 a barrel.

The key indices of the Indian stock market, the Sensex and Nifty 50, each saw a more than 0.5 percent increase, which bolstered the rupee's optimistic sentiment.

Outlook for Rupees

Amit Pabari, MD of CR Forex Advisors, states that resistance for the rupee is still located between 88.80 and 88.85, while support is located between 88.20 and 88.40.

The likelihood of falling below 88.50 seems greater, at about 70%, indicating that if mood stabilizes, some appreciation may occur. While a break over 88.85 may reopen the gates of volatility, a clear move below 88.40 might signal the start of a gradual recovery, according to Pabari.

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