Indian Stock Market Outlook This Week: Inflation Data, India-US Trade Deal & Q3 Results to Watch

Indian Stock Market Ends Higher on Friday; Inflation Data, India-US Trade Deal Among Key Triggers for Next Week

Indian stock market benchmarks closed higher on Friday, February 6, supported by buying interest in select heavyweight stocks such as ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank, despite continued volatility during the week.

The Sensex gained 266 points, or 0.32%, to close at 83,580.40, while the Nifty 50 rose 51 points, or 0.20%, to settle at 25,693.70.

Market participants turned selective, focusing on large-cap stocks as supportive global cues and domestic developments helped offset concerns stemming from Budget-related measures.

Weekly Market Performance and Expert View

Commenting on the market movement, Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said markets remained volatile but ended the week with healthy gains as positive global and domestic triggers outweighed initial Budget concerns.

He noted that the announcement of the India–US trade deal, the RBI’s decision to keep policy rates unchanged, and an upward revision in GDP growth estimates helped revive bullish sentiment. Broader indices also ended higher, indicating improved risk appetite among investors.

Stock Market Outlook for Next Week

According to Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, Indian equity markets have entered a consolidation phase, with investor attention shifting toward policy implementation, capital expenditure execution, and actual spending momentum.

Overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with markets expected to stay event-driven, tracking global cues, capital flows, inflation data, and geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East.

Top 5 Triggers That May Influence the Indian Stock Market Next Week

1. India–US Trade Deal Developments

The announcement of an interim India–US trade pact framework has provided clarity to domestic and foreign investors. The agreement aims to reduce trade barriers and promote reciprocal commerce, potentially benefiting export-oriented sectors such as IT, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, textiles, defence, chemicals, and gems and jewellery.

Experts believe the deal could also support the Indian rupee, which remains a key factor in attracting foreign portfolio inflows.

2. Inflation Data

Investors will closely track January CPI inflation data, scheduled for release on February 12, followed by WPI inflation and forex reserves data on February 13. The CPI figures will be compiled using a revised 2024 base year, expected to better reflect current consumption patterns.

3. Q3 Results 2026

The fifth week of the December quarter (Q3 FY26) earnings season will see several major companies announce results, including BSE, Hindustan Unilever, Aurobindo Pharma, Apollo Hospitals, Titan Company, and Mahindra & Mahindra. Corporate earnings will play a key role in determining near-term market direction.

4. Gold and Silver Prices

Gold and silver prices rebounded on Friday amid bargain buying, a mildly weaker dollar, and lingering geopolitical concerns. Analysts believe the recent correction helped unwind excess leverage, while the medium- to long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive. Movements in bullion prices may continue to influence sentiment in commodity-linked stocks.

5. FII and DII Activity

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers on February 6, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) booked profits. Market experts noted that stabilisation in the rupee could encourage further FII inflows in the coming weeks, although global risks remain a key monitorable.

Technical Outlook for Next Week

Nifty 50

According to Ajit Mishra, Nifty is expected to consolidate with a positive bias as long as it holds above 25,400. A breakout above 26,000 could open the path toward 26,400, while a breakdown may drag the index toward 25,100.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a positive bias. A sustained move above 60,500 could trigger further upside toward 61,500, while 59,000–59,500 is seen as a key support zone.

Sensex

Ponmudi R noted that Sensex is undergoing healthy consolidation after recent highs. Immediate support lies at 83,000–83,300, while resistance is seen at 84,000–84,500. Large-cap stocks are expected to continue attracting long-term investor interest.