Due to a bullish UBS report, Meesho's shares has increased 95% since its IPO. The company plans to improve its marketing and cloud infrastructure, and from FY25 to FY30, its Net Merchandise Value is expected to increase at a 30% CAGR.
Meesho's stock price: The share price of recently listed e-commerce business Meesho continued its robust post-listing surge on Wednesday, December 17, reaching a record high for the second straight session. In intraday transactions, the stock was stuck in its 20% upper circuit of ₹216.35 on the BSE.
Meesho has now achieved an astounding 95% gain above its IPO price at today's high.
The stock has now gained for the third day in a row. The price of Meesho shares increased by 5.6% and 3.4% in the last two sessions, yielding a remarkable 31% return in just three trading days.
A bullish note from global stockbroker UBS, which started coverage on the stock with a "Buy" rating and a target price of ₹220, meaning roughly 10% upside from today's peak, was the driving force behind the most recent surge in Meesho shares.
Last week, Meesho made a remarkable debut on the stock exchanges, listing at a premium of nearly 46% above the ₹111 issue price. The stock started trading at ₹162.50 on the NSE, up 46.40%, and then shot up 55.58% to ₹172.70. It listed at ₹161.20 on the BSE, a 45.22% increase.
UBS is optimistic about Meesho
UBS cited Meesho's asset-light concept, robust user growth, and consistent improvement in financial indicators as the main drivers of its positive outlook. According to the brokerage, Meesho stands out from many other online businesses due to its negative working capital and business structure that promotes cash flow generation.
"We believe Meesho's asset-light, negative working-capital business model positions it well for sustained profitability, supported by a 30% NMV CAGR, rising user engagement, and expanding order frequency through FY30," the UBS note stated.
Due to a significant rise in Annual Transacting Users (ATUs) from 199 million to 518 million, UBS projects that Meesho's Net Merchandise Value (NMV) will expand at a 30% CAGR between FY25 and FY30. Over the same time period, order frequency is expected to increase dramatically from 9.2x to 14.7x.
As the business transfers logistics efficiency to the larger ecosystem, the Average Order Value (AOV) is anticipated to decrease from ₹274 to ₹233. By FY30, it is anticipated that the contribution margin would reach 6.8% and the adjusted EBITDA margin will reach 3.2% of NMV.
On Tuesday, Utsav Verma, Head of Research at Choice Institutional Equities, stated that while the bull-case valuation of ₹234 reflects stronger-than-expected improvements in monetization, operating leverage, and execution on the path to profitability, the base-case target price for Meesho of ₹200 implies limited near-term upside from current levels.
Details about Meesho's IPO
Investor interest in the ₹5,421-crore Meesho IPO was enormous, as seen by the 79.02 times subscription at closing. The price range for each share of the issue was ₹105 to ₹111. It featured an offer for sale (OFS) of 10.55 crore shares, valued at ₹1,171 crore at the top price band, and a new issuance of ₹4,250 crore.
The money will be used by Meesho for brand and marketing campaigns, cloud infrastructure, and inorganic development prospects like acquisitions and strategic alliances. Additionally, a share will be used for general business objectives.
Meesho: The fastest-growing e-commerce platform in India
Based on annual transactional users and order volumes in the 12 months ending September 30, 2025, Meesho has become the biggest e-commerce platform in India. The platform has developed a robust value-focused business model by providing inexpensive goods that draw in regular customers.
As a result of its affordability-led approach, the company's AOV decreased from ₹336.71 in FY23 to ₹274.27 in FY25. Nonetheless, within the same time period, total orders increased from 102.4 crore to 183.4 crore.
Meesho's ATUs increased from 13.6 crore to 19.8 crore between FY23 and FY25, growing at a 20.7% CAGR. The platform recorded 13.53 billion average daily product views in FY25, indicating that engagement levels are still high.
Meesho hosted 153.72 million daily active product listings during the six months that concluded on September 30, 2025, compared to 109.65 million during the prior period. The strength of Meesho's discovery-driven business is demonstrated by the noteworthy fact that 73.18% of orders were produced through personalized feeds and suggestions.
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