According to data from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India's exports are expected to increase by 3% to $850 billion in the fiscal year that ends in 2025–2026 due to a more difficult global trade environment than the nation has seen recently.
According to data from the economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India's exports of products and services are expected to increase by 3% to $850 billion in the fiscal year that ends in 2025–2026, the news agency PTI reported on December 25, 2025.
According to the agency data, total Indian exports reached $825 billion in the 2024–2025 fiscal year, consisting of $438 billion in goods and $387 billion in services.
India's exports are expected to encounter a more challenging international trade climate in 2026 than the nation has experienced in recent years, according to the latest research from the economic think tank.
They claimed that as India tries to increase exports, new trade impediments related to climate change, declining global demand, and growing protectionism in developed nations are converging.
What was said by GTRI?
According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, the outcome is an outlook characterized more by the difficulty of holding position than by growth.
Due to poor global demand and increased US tariff pressure, goods exports are expected to remain relatively steady in FY26, while services exports might slightly surpass USD 400 billion.
He stated that the external environment is rapidly deteriorating and that Europe poses a different but no less expensive problem.
On January 1, 2026, the European Union will implement its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will essentially impose an import carbon tax.
He pointed out that compliance and reporting requirements have already reduced India's steel exports to the EU by roughly 24% even before payments start.
"EU importers will price Indian goods inclusive of CBAM costs starting in 2026, with payments settled through certificate surrender in 2027," he continued.
GTRI recommended that the government immediately assess the sector-by-sector performance of its free trade agreements to make sure they are genuinely increasing exports, incorporating Indian companies into international value chains, and producing quantifiable trade advantages rather than staying under -utilised diplomatic trophies.
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